India suspends indus water treaty

Pahalgam Attack: How India's Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty Could Devastate Pakistan

The Indus River, often called the "lifeline of Pakistan," has been a symbol of survival and cooperation between two historic rivals — India and Pakistan — for decades. But the tragic events of 22 April 2025 in Pahalgam, Kashmir, have changed everything.

 In the wake of a brutal terrorist attack that killed 26 innocent civilians and injured dozens, India has taken a monumental step: suspending the Indus Water Treaty after more than six decades of careful water sharing. 

 This decision could have far-reaching consequences, not just for India-Pakistan relations but for the very survival of millions in Pakistan.

 What Was the Indus Water Treaty? 

Signed in 1960 with the help of the World Bank, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was an agreement that divided the waters of six major rivers between India and Pakistan: India was given rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Pakistan was allotted the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — with India permitted limited, non-consumptive use (like hydroelectricity). The treaty survived wars, cross-border tensions, and political hostility. It stood as one of the few functioning bridges between the two nuclear neighbors. 

 What Changed After the Pahalgam Attack?

 On 22 April 2025, militants believed to be linked to Pakistan-based groups carried out a horrific attack in Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, Kashmir. The massacre of tourists sent shockwaves across India. For New Delhi, this attack was the last straw. In response: India officially suspended its obligations under the Indus Water Treaty. It announced that it would retain full control over the western rivers as well. Ongoing and upcoming projects like dams, barrages, and hydropower plants will now be prioritized without needing to account for Pakistan’s water share. This action marks the end of an era — and possibly the beginning of a new, far more dangerous chapter in South Asian history. 

 What Will Happen to Pakistan If India Stops the Indus River? 

The impact on Pakistan could be catastrophic: 

 1. Severe Water Shortages: Pakistan is heavily dependent on the Indus River system for drinking water, irrigation, and industry. Stopping or reducing river flows would plunge Pakistan into a national water crisis.

 2. Agricultural Collapse: About 90% of Pakistan's agriculture relies on Indus waters. Without it, crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton — staples of Pakistan’s economy — would wither. This would likely cause food shortages, mass unemployment, and inflation. 

 3. Energy Blackouts: Pakistan produces a major chunk of its electricity from hydropower projects along the Indus. Reduced water flow would result in power outages, crippling industries and daily life.

 4. Economic Meltdown: Agriculture, textiles, and manufacturing — sectors that make up a huge part of Pakistan’s GDP — would suffer. A water crisis could trigger a full-scale economic collapse, forcing millions into poverty.

 5. Environmental Catastrophe: Lower river flows could dry up wetlands, kill fisheries, accelerate desertification, and destroy ecosystems that millions of people and animals depend on. 

 6. Political and Social Unrest: Faced with resource scarcity, Pakistan could experience widespread civil unrest, internal displacement, and even government instability. 

 Can Pakistan Stop This?

 At this stage, Pakistan’s options are very limited: Appeal to international bodies like the United Nations or International Court of Justice. Attempt to renegotiate a new water-sharing agreement (highly unlikely). Increase diplomatic pressure on India through allies. Prepare for internal water conservation and crisis management — though the scale of the potential disaster may overwhelm any efforts.

 Conclusion:

 A River of Life, Turned Into a River of Crisis The Pahalgam attack of 2025 did more than take innocent lives; it shattered the already fragile trust between India and Pakistan. By suspending the Indus Water Treaty, India has sent a powerful message — and Pakistan now faces a future where its most precious natural resource hangs by a thread. The Indus, once a river of life, could become a river of conflict if cooler heads do not prevail. For the sake of millions of ordinary people on both sides, one can only hope diplomacy finds a way — before the rivers dry up, and with them, the hopes of an entire region.